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Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI rebounded in March, and the economy registers good performance Publishing Time:2018-09-06 16:43
  In March, both manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI rebounded as expected. Manufacturing PMI rose to the level consistent with the first quarter. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was simultaneously above entrepreneur expectation index this year, indicating that the economy has registered good performance.
  China Federation of Logistics&Purchasing (CFLP) and the research center of service industry of National Bureau of Statistics released data yesterday. In March, manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the last month, rising to the level consistent to the first quarter, and the expansion of manufacturing industry accelerated.
  “The PMI index increased significantly in March, indicating that with the disappearance of the influence of the Spring Festival, the characteristics of steady economic growth become more apparent,” said Zhang Liqun, researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council.
  Since December of the last year, the PMI index has continued to fall slightly. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, there has been a significant decline in February this year, and the market's fear of slow economic growth has increased.
  Zhang Liqun said that the data in March showed that this change was mainly due to seasonal factors, and there was no slowdown in economic growth. The main indicators of PMI in March were significantly higher than those in February, indicating that the fluctuations caused by the Spring Festival are more obvious. It also shows that the basic characteristics such as stable market demands, active production and management activities and good expectations since last year are more distinct.
  The data shows that in March, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were all above entrepreneur expectation index, and PMI of small and medium enterprises rose by 5.3 percentage points, which was the first time since June 2017 to return to the extension range.
  “According to previous years' experience, small enterprises were most affected by seasonality, and they usually rebounded significantly in March. As external demand continues to expand, small enterprises are driven obviously,” said Liu Xuezhi, senior researcher at the research center of Bank of Communications.
  The turnaround of external demand is also reflected in the PMI sub-indicators. In March, the new export orders index rose by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month to 51.3%, returning to the extension range. In Liu Xuezhi's view, the external demand situation turns better, booming export orders, and exports are expected to maintain growth momentum.
  Chen Zhongtao, deputy chief economist of China Logistics Information Center, also said that in general, the first quarter of this year has continued to register a robust growth momentum. On the one hand, economic growth remains stable, and judged from PMI, GDP growth is expected to be about 6.8% in the first quarter; on the other hand, the inherent quality of economic development is improving.
   In line with the trend of manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI also has rebounded, rising by 0.2 percentage points from the last month to 54.6% in March.
   Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of Logistics&Purchasing (CFLP), believes that non-manufacturing PMI has stabilized at more than 54% for seven consecutive months, indicating that non-manufacturing industry continues to maintain a relatively fast development. Emerging service industries such as finance, air transport, express delivery and information services industry are developing with a good momentum, and the drive force of innovation toward high-quality development is strengthening.
  From the perspective of industry categories, in March, the business activity index of industries, such as railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, telecommunications, Internet software, banking, securities, insurance, were all above 55%, showing strong momentum for growth.
  Liu Xuezhi said that both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI rebounded as expected in March, indicating that the current economy is good. However, he also stressed that Sino-US trade friction may cause uncertainty to the export in the future and have an impact on the PMI, which requires continuous attention.